Will the Year of Linux ever happen?

I don't know. If it does, it will take a long time to do so.
Let me present some information before we begin:
I am a Windows user and .NET programmer
I have already had my “adventures” in the Linux world, I've tried Suse, Ubuntu and Kubuntu (many versions), OpenSuse and maybe some other I do not remember.
My idea about Ubuntu 9.4, which I just installed: very good. I am really surprised about it.

I installed Ubuntu again 2 days ago, because I wanted to have some backup solution if my Windows failed. It started using it to configure it and I felt very comfortable with it, the only thing I miss is a mature environment to .NET development (I know about mono, but my past experiences with it weren't very good, I will wait some time to try it again. I wanted to try use Wine or Crossover to run Visual Studio, but they do not support it). If someone has any idea, I will be happy to try it.

To support my idea that the Linux year will take a long time to happen, I will try to show some scenarios to help you to understand it.

Users are stupid, but Linux doesn't know that.
Yes, they are. All a user knows is to click next, they can't even read what's written!
Linux usability improved a lot recently, Ubuntu is a very user friendly distribution, but it hasn't reached Windows level. I will give some examples:
“Synaptic Package Manager”, that is the name used in Linux to the feature named “Add/Remove Programs” in Windows. If my grandmother is using a computer, she will very easily understand what “Add/Remove programs” means, but what does a “Package Manager”?
Even if the user tries to use the package manager, he will have to download some things like that, in order to listen to mp3: gstreamer0.10-plugins-ugly; libxine-extracodes, etc. How will he discover it? (Remember, users do not google!)

The process “Question-Google-Answer-Do it” is pretty straightforward for people who work with computers and I, for instance, really enjoy using command line. But for non-experienced users, it is not like that, they just do not google and the command line scares them. Windows has a big advantage there: they have all kinds of wizards, making easier to the user to use them. They have a help system in a wizard form, it asks the user about what is going on, the user checks the checkboxes and some possible answer is given at the end. Yes, everybody knows that the answer will not help in 99% of the cases, but it makes the user feel better, more comfortable.

Linux is more secure.
Yes, indeed, there are much more viruses for windows than for Linux (if there is any). In my point of view, that only happens because Windows is running in more machines. Nobody wants to create a virus to target a SO that is running in only 7% of the computers all over the world, you want to catch the big fish.
The antivirus running in windows may give a sense of protection (event if it is not true). The user will feel safe using windows with an antivirus, they won't feel any need of changing their SO.

I feel comfortable with Windows, Linux scares me.
Yes, unfortunately.
Many users do not know Linux, but say that it is not good. They have a prejudgment about Linux and do not want to try, they have been using windows since it started, why change now?
Changing to something new requires that the user leaves the “comfort zone”, and that may be hard to many.

Distros, distros, distros.
Choosing a distro to install is the first problem of someone who wants to start using Linux. Imagine yourself entering a place to get a sword. You do not know anything about swords, and you have many options, all for free. You ask for help, but nobody can really help you, once “it depends on your needs”. Yes, they are right, it really depends on your needs, but nobody know your needs, neither do you. How to choose it?
That may disappoint the user: if choosing the distro to install is hard and frustrating, imagine how it is to use the system? He may give up trying without even starting.

Talking big!
Companies. Windows or Linux? That's even more complicated. (Let's talk about companies in general. Software companies may have others constraints)
For desktops you have a choice: you can install a Windows, and pay for it, but your employees will know how to use it (they have been using it for years) or you can install Linux, for free but the majority of your employees are going to need some time to get used to it.
I would choose Linux, specially if my company uses only one system, where the user won't see the desktop, but then we have some points:
The employees are all used to the office package, is open office an alternative? (This question I will let for you to answer: someone who learned Ms office for years will be able to start working with Open Office without problems?)
Old programs, they were not made to be used in Linux (probably they are not portable), they will have to be developed again. Is it worth?

For servers: for sure, if Linux is used, the company would have a third party support (like Red Hat) and that isn't for free. I don't know exactly the prices, but I imagine it is not very cheap, the price may match Microsoft or even be lower.
I think the server segment will be the first that Linux will beat Windows (if that happens). There the users are more experienced and have more knowledge. They are also not afraid of learning something new.

Conclusion
Linux really impressed me. Ubuntu 9.10 is coming next week and I will try it. But I think, in order to beat Windows, Linux will have to improve and get closer to the “next-next-finish” philosophy (which some Linux Users really hate). On the other hand, people will have to get used to Linux, and it will happen very slowly, but I think it is going to happen, since schools are using Linux in their info labs.

The only reason I would go back to windows would be the mature .NET Framework which doesn't exist until now in Linux, this is the why I have dual-bool ;). But this is just the beginning, I will have to use it more to be sure. I haven't tried to use Skype or play some MSN game with someone, let's see if it works.


Ps: thanks for visiting this blog. The first 3 days I got 15 visits and 1 follower, that's great! Thanks for the support. Please let me know if you have any ideas to make it better, and feel free to express your opinions on the comments.